Glassnode analysts allowed bitcoin to bottomLivia Green
Bitcoin cannot break out of the range formed since February, however, the process of redistributing coins from speculative investors to holders has already been completed. A similar scenario has not been ruled out at Glassnode.
On a statistical basis, it appears we have just seen the largest capitulation of both cohorts.
Read our analysis👇https://t.co/jooUzNt5k8
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 19, 2022
The experts again recalled the accumulation of coins in the $35,000-$42,000 corridor. Comparing UTXO at the time of writing and as of January 22 (marked with a blue dotted line), they came to the following conclusions:
- the past 2.5 months of consolidation did not lead to active actions, including among those who hold coins at a loss;
- many investors have refilled their wallets at prices ranging from $38,000 to $45,000;
- most of the bitcoins purchased at prices above $40,000 migrated to the wallets of those who can be classified as hodlers;
- most of the reallocated coins came from bottom-hunters in the $32,000-$36,000 range and long-term investors who bought bitcoins at $3,000-$4,000 (the latter sold an impressive 60,000 BTC);
- the share of those who bought after the historical maximum in November decreased (they recorded a loss).
According to the market profile chart, there are few participants among speculators who purchased BTC in the range of $50,000-$60,000. Basically, their purchases are concentrated in the $38,000-$50,000 corridor.
Hodlers hold 15.2% of the total market supply at a loss, having survived the current 50% correction. According to analysts, this confirms the low probability of formation of selling pressure in the future.
The speed at which coins moved into unrealized losses during the current correction turned out to be significant in the historical retrospective.
Short-term investors’ net realized capitalization (three standard deviations) fell only twice as badly, at the extremes of the 2018 bear market. The current dynamics has surpassed the correction in July 2021.
A more dramatic (4.5 standard deviations) drop in analysts was recorded in the metric in relation to long-term investors. It turned out to be unprecedented.
The most convincing explanation for the trend, experts called the capitulation of hodlers, frightened by the pace of the current correction. Buying at lower than average costs, and the transition of speculators into the category of long-term investors, they described as less significant factors.
Recall, the head of Nexo Antoni Trenchev predicted bitcoin growth to $100,000 within a year.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes named the likely fall of bitcoin to $ 30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index.
Formerly Arcane Research analysts discovered that the correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks is at its highest since July 2020.